When ND Brains Predict Before They Perceive: How Predictive Processing Shapes Neurodivergent Experience

By Tim Aiello, MA, LPC, NCC, ADHD-CCSP, ASDCS

Predictive processing has become one of the most influential frameworks in neuroscience. It suggests that the brain is not a passive receiver of information, but an active guesser, constantly generating predictions about what will happen next. These predictions are compared to incoming sensory data, and the brain updates (or doubles down) depending on what it finds.

For neurodivergent adults, especially those who are Autistic, ADHD, or AuDHD, this system tends to run in overdrive. The brain predicts too fast, too intensely, or with too much emotional weight. And when prediction outpaces perception, it creates a lived reality that often feels like hypervigilance, overthinking, anxiety, and chronic anticipatory stress.

This isn’t a “dramatic brain.” It’s a protective brain that learned to stay on guard.

Let’s break it down.

The Science: Your Brain Is a Prediction Machine

Predictive processing theory proposes that the brain continuously generates models of the world, then tests those models against sensory input. Cognition becomes less about reacting and more about forecasting (Friston, 2005; Clark, 2013).

In this view:

• Top-down predictions = what the brain expects

• Bottom-up sensory data = what is actually happening

• Prediction errors = the gap between the two

  
  

A neurotypical brain tends to wait for sensory confirmation before committing to an interpretation. A neurodivergent brain, however, often commits early.

Research suggests that Autistic and ADHD brains:

• generate predictions more quickly• assign high emotional significance to uncertainty• rely less on interoceptive and sensory confirmation• carry stronger priors from past experiences (Pellicano & Burr, 2012; Lawson et al., 2017; van de Cruys et al., 2014)

This means the brain is constantly guessing, and those guesses can feel real.

Why ND Brains Predict Before They Perceive

1. Pattern Sensitivity

Autistic and ADHD brains often detect micro-shifts, subtle cues, inconsistencies, or emotional fluctuations that other people don’t even register (van de Cruys et al., 2014).Spotting patterns is a strength, but it can also become a trap when the brain starts “auto-filling” meaning before data arrives.

2. Interoceptive Confusion

When internal signals are confusing or muted, the brain leans more heavily on prediction than sensation. This is well documented in Autistic interoception research (Garfinkel et al., 2016).If the body can’t confirm safety, the brain guesses danger.

3. Executive Overload

ADHD nervous systems struggle with uncertainty. Ambiguity feels unsafe because the brain cannot hold multiple possibilities without anxiety rising (Brown, 2020).Prediction becomes a way to reduce cognitive load.

4. Trauma, RSD, or Chronic Fight-or-Flight

Past pain becomes a template. A single ambiguous text can trigger old relational wounds. The brain fills in blanks with familiar threat-based narratives (Porges, 2011; Linehan, 2015).

5. Hypervigilance

If someone has spent a lifetime navigating environments that misread or invalidated them, the nervous system learns to stay “ahead of danger.” It’s survival learning, not overreaction.

Your brain isn’t misbehaving. It’s protecting you, just too early or too intensely.

What Predictive Processing Looks Like in Daily Life

Here’s where the theory meets real ND lived experience:

• Explaining something simple for two hours because you anticipate every possible misunderstanding.• Assuming someone is upset with you before they’ve said anything.• Studying tone, pauses, silence, or punctuation like it’s forensic evidence.• Running through scenarios you logically know are unlikely.• Feeling emotionally certain about situations that haven’t actually happened.

This is not “overthinking for fun.” This is a nervous system trying to stay safe.

When Prediction Becomes Distortion

Prediction becomes a problem when:

• danger is seen where only ambiguity exists• meanings are assumed before data is available• one cue becomes a catastrophic storyline• the brain treats a guess like a fact

This is a clash between neuroception (the nervous system’s threat detector) and actual perception.

Your mind isn’t spiraling because it’s dramatic. It’s spiraling because the protective system fires before the perceptual system catches up.

Polyvagal Theory and Predictive Processing: The Nervous System Connection

Predictive processing and Polyvagal Theory (Porges, 2011) complement each other beautifully.

Here’s the bridge:

• Predictive processing explains how the brain guesses.

• Polyvagal Theory explains why the nervous system reacts as if those guesses are real.

  
  

A system stuck in sympathetic activation or dorsal shutdown is more likely to:• assume danger• misinterpret neutral cues• struggle to wait for sensory confirmation• assign threat value to uncertainty

This is why ND individuals often describe “living three steps ahead.”Their nervous system is anticipating danger before reality enters the chat.

What Helps ND Brains Regulate Predictive Processing

1. Anchor in Sensory Reality

Ask: “What did I actually see, hear, or feel—not predict?” This shifts the system from top-down guessing to bottom-up sensing.

2. Name the Prediction

Instead of “This is happening,” try: “My brain is telling me this might happen.” Labeling reduces fusion with the thought.

3. Ask “What else could this mean?”

This keeps the cognitive loop open instead of jumping to certainty.

4. Regulate Interoception

Slow breaths, pressure, cold compresses, or grounding through movement can increase connection to bodily cues.

5. Use a Safe Other for Co-Regulation

Neurodivergent nervous systems regulate through trusted relationships. A calm person can “down-shift” an overactive prediction system (Coan & Sbarra, 2015).

6. Reduce Cognitive Load

Prediction skyrockets when the brain is tired, overstimulated, or overloaded. This is where routines, sensory diets, and nervous system tracking become essential.

The Goal Isn’t to Stop Predicting

You’re not trying to shut off a system that evolved to protect you. The goal is to learn:

• when predictions are helpful• when they’re hijacking your perception• and how to pause long enough to let the real data arrive

Prediction is a gift. It becomes a trap only when it goes unchecked.

References

Brown, T. E. (2020). Attention Deficit Disorder: The Unfocused Mind in Children and Adults. Yale University Press.

Clark, A. (2013). Whatever next? Predictive brains, situated agents, and the future of cognitive science. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 36(3), 181–204.

Coan, J. A., & Sbarra, D. A. (2015). Social Baseline Theory: The social regulation of risk and effort. Current Opinion in Psychology, 1, 87–91.

Friston, K. (2005). A theory of cortical responses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 360(1456), 815–836.

Garfinkel, S. N., et al. (2016). Interoceptive dimensions across psychiatric disorders. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 371(1708).

Lawson, R. P., Rees, G., & Friston, K. J. (2017). An aberrant precision account of Autism. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 18(11), 770–786.

Linehan, M. M. (2015). DBT Skills Training Manual. Guilford Press.

Pellicano, E., & Burr, D. (2012). When the world becomes ‘too real’: A Bayesian explanation of autistic perception. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 16(10), 504–510.

Porges, S. W. (2011). The Polyvagal Theory: Neurophysiological foundations of emotions, attachment, communication, and self-regulation. W. W. Norton.

van de Cruys, S., et al. (2014). Precise minds in uncertain worlds: Predictive coding in Autism. Psychological Review, 121(4), 649–675.